Despite currently ranking 13th, Manchester United still has hope of challenging for a top-four spot in the Premier League. It’s worth noting that the gap between Manchester United and the fourth-placed team is just 4 points, a rare phenomenon on the league table that brings new hope to the Red Devils.
After Tottenham lost to Ipswich Town last weekend, manager Ryan Mason lashed out at his players, but a member of the coaching staff consoled him by saying, “Which team hasn’t been like this this season?” This was not an empty statement but a reflection of the reality of the Premier League.
After 11 matches, the gap between third place and 13th place is only 4 points, and the gap between third place and 11th place is just 3 points. The Premier League table has never been so congested. Of course, at the top, Liverpool is strong, and Manchester City remains at a championship level. However, for the other 18 teams, such a situation is uncommon.
Looking back in history, the smallest gap between third place and 11th place occurred 20 years ago. In the 2002/03 season, after the 11th round, Chelsea (third place) led Fulham (11th place) by 4 points. In the 2005/06 season, Tottenham (third place) led Middlesbrough (11th place) by 5 points. The smallest gap between third place and 13th place was in the 1998/99 season when Arsenal led Newcastle by 6 points.
In the past decade, the average gap has typically been around 10-11 points. During Leicester City’s chaotic title-winning season (2015/16), the gap between third place and 11th place after the 11th round was also 6 points, and the gap between third place and 13th place was 9 points. This is enough to illustrate the abnormality of this season.
Manchester United currently ranks 13th but is only 4 points behind third-place Chelsea. This is the reason why Amorim remains optimistic after taking over Manchester United. As long as they perform well in the next few rounds, Manchester United can join the race for a Champions League qualification spot.
Many other teams share a similar mindset to Manchester United. Tottenham has lost 3 of their last 5 games but is only 3 points behind Chelsea. Brentford, under Thomas Frank, plays open and dynamic football but has dropped to 11th place. Nevertheless, they still have dreams because they are only 3 points behind the Champions League qualification zone. Aston Villa has felt the harshness of the Champions League, leading to poor performance in the Premier League. However, even in ninth place, Emery’s team is only 1 point behind the top four.
The main reasons for the narrowing of the points gap between teams are twofold. First, the impact of Financial Fair Play (FFP) has forced Premier League clubs to tighten their belts. Young players are getting more opportunities, and there are fewer expensive signings. Most teams have become cautious about signing star players, resulting in very little difference in squad quality between mid-table and top teams.
The second reason, which has a greater impact, is the dense fixture schedule. Injuries have become a nightmare for all teams, including giants like Arsenal and Manchester City. Arsenal has struggled without Odegaard, and Manchester City is no longer the same without Rodri. Healthy players have to work harder, and the risk of injury is higher.
